The English clubs are out of the Champions League – but there’s still a chance of English success. Three of the semi-finalists have English players in their ranks, with Jude Bellingham exploding on the scene in La Liga this season and Jadon Sancho rebuilding his career at Borussia Dortmund.

And, of course, there’s Harry Kane. When he moved to Bayern Munich last summer, most people assumed he was guaranteed at least one trophy: the Bundesliga title, which Bayern had won for the previous 12 seasons. Thanks to a phenomenal campaign from Bayer Leverkusen (which no one predicted), that didn’t come to fruition.

But it’s no fault of Kane’s. The England striker has scored more than a goal a game in the Bundesliga and is leading the contenders for Europe’s Golden Shoe award. His goals helped see off Lazio in the last 16 of the Champions League and Arsenal in the quarter-finals. His form, frankly, is fire.

So we’re stating our case now, ahead of the semi-final first legs which begin at 7pm on Tuesday 30 April on TNT Sports 1 HD (CH 527). We think Kane and Bayern (with contribution from the other Englishman left in the competition, Eric Dier) will be hoisting the Champions League trophy aloft at Wembley on 1 June. Why? Well, allow us to elaborate… 

Wembley is his manor

No one knows Wembley better than Kane. He’s played there 34 times for England and scored 24 goals – more than any other England player – including three hat-tricks. Wembley was the venue when he captained England’s men to their first final since 1966, and he scored in the shoot-out.

Not only that, but he played there 30 times in a single season when Tottenham’s stadium was being built – a season in which he scored 41 goals and Spurs finished third. When Kane steps onto the Wembley turf, he’s at home.

Real Madrid’s luck will surely run out

Real Madrid have reached the Champions League semi-finals in, almost unbelievably, 11 of the past 13 seasons. Even when they’re off the pace in La Liga, they tend to do well in Europe – and they’re definitely not off the pace in La Liga. However, anyone who watched the quarter-final second leg against Man City will know they’ve ridden their luck somewhat in this campaign.

Despite the presence of attacking stars like Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham, they relied heavily on their defence against City and scraped through on pens. That may have worked once (and mainly because Kevin de Bruyne inexplicably missed a wonderful chance), but surely it can’t work again. With Kane and all the firepower in the Bayern team, the German side won’t let them get away with it.

Kane’s the king of goals AND assists

Kane isn’t the top Champions League goalscorer this season. That’s Kylian Mbappé, who’s also in the semi-finals after PSG came back to knock out Barcelona. But add in assists and it’s a different story. With three on top of his seven goals, Kane leads the rankings for goal involvements (Mbappé, perhaps unsurprisingly, has zero assists), demonstrating what an all-round threat he is. Pinging precision passes for the speedy likes of Leroy Sané and Serge Gnabry is as big a part of his game as scoring.

Bayern’s record in London is incredible

Bayern will be rubbing their hands at the prospect of a Wembley final – they love a trip to London. Before this season’s successful quarter-final against Arsenal, their previous visit to the Emirates delivered a 5-1 victory. Their last game away at Spurs? A 7-2 win for Bayern. How about their last game at Chelsea? That was 3-0 to Bayern.

And of course, the last time the Champions League final was at Wembley the winners were… Bayern.

Their potential opponents are… flaky

Assuming Bayern breeze past 14-time champions Real Madrid, they’ll face Borussia Dortmund or Paris St-Germain. The Munich giants hold the whip hand over their German rivals with 54 wins in Der Klassiker to Dortmund’s 26, and nine victories in the past 11 meetings. Plus last season, they snatched the title on the last day when Dortmund crumbled once again. They’ll have that match won before they leave the dressing room.

This PSG team are tougher than previous iterations, and for Mbappé a Champions League win would be a glorious swansong ahead of his exit. But they’re known for falling apart in this competition: despite all their riches, this is only their third semi-final, and the one time they did reach the final, they were beaten by… you guessed it, Bayern. They just don’t have the mental strength and self-belief of the Bavarians.

Bayern have to win something – it’s virtually the law

In the wake of Leverkusen’s success, there’s been lots of talk about Kane bringing his “Spursiness” – the ability to lose when victory seems certain – to Munich. Nope. The truth is that Bayern’s performances have actually been a little better than last season’s, and they’ve already gone further in the Champions League.

And besides, it’s a rare season indeed when Bayern end up empty-handed: just three in the past 28, in fact, and not since 2011/12. It’s practically written in stone that they’ll claim a trophy every season. This year, that means the Champions League – and Harry Kane is the man to lead them to it.

When are the Champions League semi-finals on TV?

The first legs of the semi-finals are coming up in a few days:

Bayern Munich v Real Madrid

Tuesday 30 April, 7pm, TNT Sports 1 HD (CH 527)

Borussia Dortmund v Paris Saint-Germain

Wednesday 1 May, 7pm, TNT Sports 1 HD (CH 527)

Then the second legs are the following week:

Paris Saint-Germain v Borussia Dortmund

Tuesday 7 May, 7pm, TNT Sports 1 HD (CH 527)

Real Madrid v Bayern Munich

Wednesday 8 May, 7pm, TNT Sports 1 HD (CH 527)

When is the Champions League final on TV?

The final between definitely Bayern Munich and either Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain will be on Saturday 1 June on TNT Sports 1 HD (CH 527).

Remember, you can follow the UEFA Champions League and all the live action on TNT Sports wherever you are in the UK, as long as there’s WiFi, 3G or 4G, thanks to Virgin TV Go. Simply download the free app, which is free to all Virgin TV customers and is compatible with Android, iOS, Windows 10 and PC/Mac. Download the Virgin TV Go app.